Bitcoin price is heading toward a second consecutive losing October, but Galaxy Research believes the market may have already turned a corner. BTC is trading just a nod above $80,000, down by more than 4% month-to-date, as investors weigh persistent selling pressure against enhancing long-term signals.
The bullish case received fresh support from U.S. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26. This return to positive flows ended a 2-day outflow streak, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for almost all of the gains.
Morover, the recovery stays fragile. U.S. Spot Ether ETFs recorded $88 million to $90 million in outflows over the same session, displaying that institutional demand stays far from universally bullish.
Galaxy Research Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over
Galaxy Research declared the Bitcoin bear market over in an October 26 assessment, claiming that BTC has entered an accumulation phase following a potential bottom near $76,500 on June 30.
The firm points to Bitcoin’s recovery above key long-term moving averages, along with the 50-week transferring average. BTC has recorded multiple weekly closes above that level, which Galaxy views as evidence that the market underlying structure has forward.
Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 when the assessment emerged, leaving it 5% above the 50-week moving average near $76,000.
Galaxy also claims that numerous sources of selling pressure have eased. Long-term holders have decreased their distribution, while macro traders and basis-focused funds range have cut their exposure. Asset managers’ net-long positions in CME Bitcoin futures have also declined substantially from preceding highs.
That matters due to the fact a market can stabilize when leveraged or speculative sellers exit, even earlier than a powerful new wave of buyers appears.
Galaxy’s bullish thesis isn’t unconditional. A sustained weekly close under the 50-week moving average, without a brief recovery, might undermine its assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower.
Can Bitcoin Price Escape Another Red October?
Bitcoin’s on the spot test is the $75,800–$76,500 region around its 50-week moving average while attracting sustained spot demand.
If the ETF recovery persists and selling pressure stays subdued, BTC should build a stronger base for another advance. Galaxy’s analysis indicates the market may be accumulating rather than entering into a fresh bearish phase.
But if ETF inflows fade and Bitcoin loses its long-term moving-average guide, the bullish price thesis will face a severe challenge.
For now, Bitcoin provides a market caught among two competing signals: a second consecutive red October and a growing argument that the worst of the bear market may already be behind it.
